What if Kamala Harris is leaving Trump in the dust, while the media stubbornly sticks to the safer narrative that it’s a horserace going down to the wire?
I’ve been sensing a runaway Harris vibe for several weeks now. And my world is uber-red Oklahoma. Two rock-ribbed Republican brothers-in-law are seeing this race likewise. Doubting the polls and expecting a Harris wave.
I've been posting on exactly this point...we're looking at a wipeout of the MAGA ticket, though it regrettably won't follow throw in Senate races...Dems lose their majority but retake the House, so there's that.
I wouldn’t be so pessimistic about our Senate odds. We’re within real striking range in Texas, Florida, Maryland and Ohio. And Montana can still surprise. I am expecting some reverse coattails.
Doubt whether today's WaPo would have a place for truth-telling as only Froomkin can do it. I mean, look at all the right-wing turkeys the rag has installed on their Opinion pages...Feh!
We have to continue to act, to fight, like Harris-Walz are the underdogs. But the best scenario is that they win in a landslide. If we make it a landslide we won’t have to worry (as much) about Trump and co's active plans to contest results and block or delay certification. From what I've been seeing and for reasons you outlined, I’m starting to think that’s not outside the realm of possibilities.
- I only open the Times mail once a day, to read the obits — because they do cover some regional folks whose deaths I would like to know — even though the times annoys with the "no longer forgotten" idiocy about folks with decades of posts to Wikipedia articles (signifying merely the prejudices of the Times that had prevented them from covering those lives!!!). Not only is AP free—it provides full stories as breaking news as well as the full service. Otherwise, I would delete the Times account completely.
Now, compare that with how I appreciate this subscription!
Yes! And I do not think the press recognizes the huge, energetic and enthusiastic grassroots movement for Harris. Young people, women, even “white dudes.” The millions of new donors and first time volunteers. Calling, door knocking, letter and post card writing. All acting with positivity for Harris and Walz.
It’s going to be a slaughter; might even exceed Reagan/Mondale (which, of course, was a horrendous error). The polls and the press are ridiculous. I don’t see evidence of any other result and I’m not even a fan of Harris (or the manner in which she became the nominee [or VP for that matter]).
Might even play out more like the ‘72 election. Maybe we’re looking at the karma for that and the decades of republicanism we’ve suffered since then. I’m getting massive “had it with their shit” vibes. I know I’m done with even trying to understand or feel sympathy for the lies, stupidity, hate and constant whining.
I was very close to shouting this opinion from the rooftops; then I read that SF Drew fellow and realized smart people everywhere were catching on to this view. Don't stop working all the places we are, but realize your hope and joy is quite catching!
I think your comments about the NYT and prestige punditry more broadly are spot on.
The trend I’ve seen is that as the NYT has become more influential in traditional media, they’ve become less influential overall.
I suspect that is due to the insular nature of traditional, especially prestige, media. It was a small elitist circle that has become more insular and elitist. So, the NYT and pundits like Nate Silver and Matty Iglesias have become increasingly out of touch with reality and isolated from the public.
They claim to be moderates or centrists, but they are not. Merely working in political media precludes one from being a centrist or a moderate in any real sense. True moderates and centrists in the US electorate do not pay attention to politics.
These individuals are, instead, elitist radicals creating a death spiral for the institution of the press that they claim to love.
We all suffer from their arrogance, entitlement, histrionics, and delusions.
Thank you for this column. I would agree this is certainly possible, as the NYTimes, WaPo and others are clearly not covering Trump honestly, given his increasing deterioration ("His speech – at rallies, and most noticeably at the debate – consists of rambling, apocalyptic, nonsensical, hate-filled rhetoric and lies."), while attacking Harris repeatedly no matter what she does, just as they did with Biden. There's no trust in their reporting, so why trust the polls?
I, for one, am currently subscribing to what you're saying, Dan. I think "joy" and "enthusiasm" and moving forward are winning! It certainly triumphs over the "shit hole" darkness, hell scape dystopia that dump invisions!
Exactly my thought too. It irks me that the Harris Walz campaign sends me begging emails citing these dumb NYT polls. I’m sure we’re winning everywhere. (I spammed NYT subscription ads a long time ago.)
I'd argue there are two ways Harris can run away with it. She can absolutely stomp him in the popular vote; indeed, this is likely, I think. But she could swamp him in the electoral college, too, if she wins four or five of the swing states, even if the margins are close.
I’ve been sensing a runaway Harris vibe for several weeks now. And my world is uber-red Oklahoma. Two rock-ribbed Republican brothers-in-law are seeing this race likewise. Doubting the polls and expecting a Harris wave.
I've been posting on exactly this point...we're looking at a wipeout of the MAGA ticket, though it regrettably won't follow throw in Senate races...Dems lose their majority but retake the House, so there's that.
I wouldn’t be so pessimistic about our Senate odds. We’re within real striking range in Texas, Florida, Maryland and Ohio. And Montana can still surprise. I am expecting some reverse coattails.
Oh, how i miss your column in the Post.
Doubt whether today's WaPo would have a place for truth-telling as only Froomkin can do it. I mean, look at all the right-wing turkeys the rag has installed on their Opinion pages...Feh!
It’s clear to me that corporate owned media is way less invested in giving voters solid information than in keeping them clicking.
We have to continue to act, to fight, like Harris-Walz are the underdogs. But the best scenario is that they win in a landslide. If we make it a landslide we won’t have to worry (as much) about Trump and co's active plans to contest results and block or delay certification. From what I've been seeing and for reasons you outlined, I’m starting to think that’s not outside the realm of possibilities.
- I only open the Times mail once a day, to read the obits — because they do cover some regional folks whose deaths I would like to know — even though the times annoys with the "no longer forgotten" idiocy about folks with decades of posts to Wikipedia articles (signifying merely the prejudices of the Times that had prevented them from covering those lives!!!). Not only is AP free—it provides full stories as breaking news as well as the full service. Otherwise, I would delete the Times account completely.
Now, compare that with how I appreciate this subscription!
Yes! And I do not think the press recognizes the huge, energetic and enthusiastic grassroots movement for Harris. Young people, women, even “white dudes.” The millions of new donors and first time volunteers. Calling, door knocking, letter and post card writing. All acting with positivity for Harris and Walz.
It’s going to be a slaughter; might even exceed Reagan/Mondale (which, of course, was a horrendous error). The polls and the press are ridiculous. I don’t see evidence of any other result and I’m not even a fan of Harris (or the manner in which she became the nominee [or VP for that matter]).
Might even play out more like the ‘72 election. Maybe we’re looking at the karma for that and the decades of republicanism we’ve suffered since then. I’m getting massive “had it with their shit” vibes. I know I’m done with even trying to understand or feel sympathy for the lies, stupidity, hate and constant whining.
And then there's Allan Lichtman, American University professor and not a hack pollster who says Harris has it in the bag.
https://www.washingtonian.com/2024/09/05/allan-lichtman-is-very-comfortable-about-predicting-the-2024-election/
I was very close to shouting this opinion from the rooftops; then I read that SF Drew fellow and realized smart people everywhere were catching on to this view. Don't stop working all the places we are, but realize your hope and joy is quite catching!
And ignore the polls and the NYT.
I think your comments about the NYT and prestige punditry more broadly are spot on.
The trend I’ve seen is that as the NYT has become more influential in traditional media, they’ve become less influential overall.
I suspect that is due to the insular nature of traditional, especially prestige, media. It was a small elitist circle that has become more insular and elitist. So, the NYT and pundits like Nate Silver and Matty Iglesias have become increasingly out of touch with reality and isolated from the public.
They claim to be moderates or centrists, but they are not. Merely working in political media precludes one from being a centrist or a moderate in any real sense. True moderates and centrists in the US electorate do not pay attention to politics.
These individuals are, instead, elitist radicals creating a death spiral for the institution of the press that they claim to love.
We all suffer from their arrogance, entitlement, histrionics, and delusions.
Thank you for this column. I would agree this is certainly possible, as the NYTimes, WaPo and others are clearly not covering Trump honestly, given his increasing deterioration ("His speech – at rallies, and most noticeably at the debate – consists of rambling, apocalyptic, nonsensical, hate-filled rhetoric and lies."), while attacking Harris repeatedly no matter what she does, just as they did with Biden. There's no trust in their reporting, so why trust the polls?
I, for one, am currently subscribing to what you're saying, Dan. I think "joy" and "enthusiasm" and moving forward are winning! It certainly triumphs over the "shit hole" darkness, hell scape dystopia that dump invisions!
Exactly my thought too. It irks me that the Harris Walz campaign sends me begging emails citing these dumb NYT polls. I’m sure we’re winning everywhere. (I spammed NYT subscription ads a long time ago.)
The best and most interesting horse race ever was Secretariat’s 31-length victory in the Belmont Stakes.
Prediction is hard -- especially about the future
I'd argue there are two ways Harris can run away with it. She can absolutely stomp him in the popular vote; indeed, this is likely, I think. But she could swamp him in the electoral college, too, if she wins four or five of the swing states, even if the margins are close.